Ukraine War Check-In
- Karl Johansson
- för 2 dagar sedan
- 3 min läsning
What's the latest in Ukraine, has anything fundamentally changed?
With the Iran war and the feared energy crisis the war in Ukraine has received less attention in the Western press than in previous years, but the coverage Ukraine has gotten has been unusually positive. The Russian advances have turned into Ukrainian advances, and Ukrainian drones strike targets all over Russia; literally hundreds or thousands of kilometres from the front. While this is good news, it is important not to make sweeping statements based on limited data.
In the past four years the slow pace of conquest from the Russian side has often been cited as evidence that they are not doing well in the war. At the current pace, they will be in Kyiv in 2041 people exclaim, or variations thereof. But now that the side gaining control of land is Ukraine the slow pace is suddenly not a worry anymore. Of course there is a difference between a larger aggressor slowly claiming territory and a smaller defender slowly liberating territory, but the point still stands, if this is the pace of change then continued attrition seems most likely.
Reports about the Russian economy also tend to be negative, noting that inflation is rather high, and that the sugar rush of converting to a wartime economy have faded while Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities has made it difficult for Russia to make money from elevated oil prices. But again, if we consider the two sides not contextlessly but comparatively, Ukraine’s economy is doing far worse than Russia’s.
All in all, the question of how the war develops will come down to how much damage Russia has managed to cause to Ukrainian infrastructure come winter. Last winter heating and power were major issues, not least in Kyiv, and it remains unclear how that situation has developed. It is exactly the kind of seemingly low stakes information which is impossible to write a compelling headline for; doomed to end up rivalling the infamous “Worthwhile Canadian Initiative”. But this is exactly the kind of information one needs to know in order to understand, and by extension be able to forecast the future direction of the war.
Ukraine is doing better than it has previously, but that is a relative change, and the overall status of the war is unchanged: it is a war of attrition with a heavy defender’s advantage, most likely the larger, richer state with a more developed military-industrial base will win, eventually. All the talk of peace summits and Ukrainian advances is interesting but unimportant until such a time as when the fundamentals change.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about the Iran war here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Kostiantyn Klymovets from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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