Is the War in Ukraine Ending?

Putin says the war is going to be over soon, should we believe him?

Russian president Vladimir Putin says that the war in Ukraine is coming to an end. Is that true? If so, what are we to make of the four-year campaign?

Firstly, it is worth noting that just as Iran as an actor with considerable agency in the standoff over the strait, Ukraine has agency and will need to agree to ending hostilities for the war to actually end. While Kyiv wants the war to end, there is a risk that Ukraine sees a Russian overture towards peace as a sign of desperation and feels that pushing the conflict to continue could make the final settlement better for Ukraine. Long time readers know that I think that a Ukrainian offensive would be a bad idea, and that the current balance of military technology seems to favour the defender meaning that a counter offensive would be a costly and difficult endeavour. Still, it is not clear what Zelensky and company thinks, and given his ironclad resolve to do everything to protect Ukraine it is possible that he could decide to gamble on continued war to punish Russia and revive the dream of reclaiming the 2014 or even 1991 borders.

 Secondly, we should expect Russia to end the “special military operation” as a winner, and while the economy is in trouble and public opinion is in a worse state than at any time since the massive protests during the beginning of the war Russia can and will continue the war, and is not desperate for a deal. This will not be like when America withdrew from Afghanistan; a one way ticket out for the troops and support staff. It will need to be a more formal peace deal where Russia gets formal recognition of its control over the occupied areas in eastern Ukraine and where it gets to impose limits on Ukraine. Russia may not get everything it wants, but it will get a lot and if it doesn’t it will just continue the war.

Still, the pressures on Russia are real, so I do think Putin is genuine when he says that the war is coming to a close. The war has revealed the differential in strength between the two countries, and while it could go on, the fighting so far suggests that it would take many years and uncountably many lives for Russia to win completely.

In terms of what to make of the war it is simple. Like all wars, it is a tragedy wasting human life and potential for happiness in a vainglorious project to enlarge the ego of a man, and his country. He says he thinks the war is wrapping up, but he can change his mind again.

If you liked this post you can read a previous post about the strait of Hormuz here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!

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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.

Written by Karl Johansson

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Cover photo by Engin Akyurt from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson