Post-Hormuz Navies

With the war in Iran and the twin blockades we are entering a new era in naval history.

When the war in Ukraine began in 2022 it upended the assumptions most Western democracies had about where and how wars are fought in the 21^st century. Over time the scale of the issue of rearming and developing the kind of armies needed to deter and in a worst case scenario even hold off Russia became apparent. I continue to hold that most pundits, analysts, and politicians still underestimate the change that drone warfare bring on the doctrinal, strategic, tactical, and operational fronts. Still, the changes to armies are at least started, and at least discussed – unlike the changes navies will need in this new age of naval drones, blockades, closed straits, and the return of honest to goodness piracy.

It has become apparent that being close to a hostile shoreline is a dangerous proposition in a time when drones and missiles have long ranges and high levels of accuracy. Naval historians might disagree but I don’t know when last – if ever – we had a technological environment like this. Modern navies are mostly used for logistics, and for those lucky enough to have air craft carriers, as mobile bases complete with transportable air power. The last classic navy on navy battle with rippling broadsides and the whole works was in the seventies: India and Pakistan went to war in 1971 resulting in the sinking of a significant chunk of Pakistan’s navy.

The question is if it is viable to have a navy oriented towards power projection and supporting expeditionary forces when there are navies actively blocking vital lanes of commerce, and pirates taking ships off the horn of Africa. Just as the war in Ukraine forced the West embark on the voyage to return their militaries to their traditional role as guardian of the homeland instead of support division for American counter-terrorist adventures, perhaps we will now need to lift anchors and retool navies to perform their traditional duties.

A world where sea lanes are safe, and trade relationships global is a good one, a prosperous one. But it is not necessarily the one we live in any more, and even if the US ultimately pries open the strait of Hormuz with their cannons the direction of travel is clear. And even if the strait is not opened by force, it might be opened through Trump’s blockade, which will demonstrate another traditional use for a navy other than force projection. “Some day, and that day may never come, someone will call upon you to do a service for our merchant mariners”. We are not far away from a time when merchant mariners could need support from our captains and admirals, and when that day comes we should have a navy which is up to the task.

If you liked this post you can read a previous post about the latest attempt on Donald Trump's life here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!

---

I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.

Written by Karl Johansson

---

Cover photo by Michael Concepcion from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson