The Tipping Point
- Karl Johansson
- för 1 dag sedan
- 4 min läsning
There will be a point when the prospect of salvaging the mid term elections is no longer possible at which point a return to war is a more palatable proposition. Tick tock.
In 2022 I wrote about the Swedish government’s campaign to join NATO, calling it the definition of insanity to try the same thing over and over and expect different results. Donald Trump and his court are by that definition probably the most insane people on the planet. Trump keeps demanding that Iran open the strait of Hormuz and give up their nuclear ambitions, Iran says no, Trump responds with threats, diplomats talk and agree to less stringent demands, Axios reports that a deal is super close (this time for sure!), Trump gets criticised for being to lenient with Iran, Trump demands that Iran open the strait of Hormuz and give up their nuclear ambitions, and the cycle repeats. Except that every run through the loop costs time, which moves the world closer and closer to energy crisis and possibly a return to war.
Analysts from across the world keep assuming that Trump is keen on winning the mid term elections in November, which therefore acts as a constraint for him. The line people keep repeating is that Trump needs a win in time for the mid terms, but I think that is misunderstanding how the president thinks. And by extension underestimating the risk of a prolonged oil crisis, as the main counterargument to the ‘worst oil crisis in history (worse than 1973)’ thesis is that a deal is imminent as Trump has to agree to a deal which opens up the strait to have a shot at the mid terms.
As I argued in ‘Game of Trump’, the best model for understanding the second Trump administration is a literal medieval court. It is common enough to see liberal commentators call it a Trump court, but they mean that strictly as a pejorative, whereas I mean that literally. I simply do not think that Trump cares about the mid terms, after all he has no legislative agenda and has shown no appetite for engaging with the mechanisms of parliamentary democracy to implement the ideas he does have and so avoid humiliating defeats at the supreme court. Furthermore, while I am uncomfortable with speculatively diagnosing world leaders with psychological conditions, I do think Trump is a narcissist and I don’t think he ever considers the idea that the American people will reject him at the ballot box; any win is due to him, and loss is due to the individual candidates.
With this in mind, I don’t think the mid terms is a constraint for Trump. It may still be a constraint for his party colleagues and courtiers, but not for the big man himself. The mid terms may already be lost, but until it is common knowledge in DC that they are already lost there is still time to do something about it. But there inevitably comes a point at which it is too late to salvage the mid terms, at which point the case for restraint vis à vis Iran disappears. Why suffer a bad deal if the elections are already forfeit? You’ve already paid the electoral costs, might as well get something for it.
The window for a deal is closing and it is not clear who realises this. Perhaps Israel will try to stall the deal in order to convince the US to restart the war. Or perhaps someone who wants to “finish the job” realises and tries to stall until the political winds are more favourable again.
The dark horse in all this is JD Vance. If I were him (with his moral and ideological flexibility) I would stall any negotiations for as long as possible. I would then convince the president that the mid terms are already lost so you might as well restart bombing. When the democrats win the mid terms and introduce articles of impeachment against Trump I then switch sides with the justification that MAGA voted for no forever wars and stab Trump in the back. When Trump is impeached I become president and make peace with Iran and take a hard line on Israel, and proceed to campaign as an anti-war hero in 2028.
Of course, nothing is written in stone, and I suppose Trump really could reach a deal with Iran soon. My point is simply that the clock is ticking, and that the longer the world is stuck in the current insane negotiation loop the more likely a return to war becomes. Am I a pessimist? Possibly, but believing reports that a deal is a few short days away seems like textbook insanity.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about AI here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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