Why There Won't Be A Deal To End the Iran War
- Karl Johansson
- för 12 minuter sedan
- 4 min läsning
There won't be a deal until there has been more fighting, and anyone claiming otherwise is wrong.
New rumours about an imminent deal between the US and Iran to finally settle the war and open up the strait of Hormuz are swirling again, and just like last time, the time before that, and the rest of the times even earlier it will not happen. Why? Because neither side is willing to concede defeat. While plenty of observers and pundits, myself included, think that the US has lost the war, it has not lost enough for Teheran to be able to press its demands. But conversely, Washington is not able to press its demands either, which has been shown repeatedly when Trump states that Iran will open the strait and give up its uranium only for the Iranians to shortly thereafter announce that they have not agreed to that at all. This round of peace talks, the next, and the ones after that are all unlikely to yield any results until the facts on the ground change, which means that a new round of fighting is inevitable, as it is the only way to break the impasse.
One of the clearest takeaways from the third Gulf war is American decline. The decline may be relative, and the US is still one of the Great Powers, but the sense of American decline is palpable. The idea that the war would be a simple weekend adventure was never realistic, and yet the clear desperation from president Trump to exit the war is surprising to me. There is a real farcical element to Pete Hegseth talking about “lethalitymaxxing” while Trump is on every conservative show which will have him talking about how everyone wants peace and that a deal is sooo close you guys.
Western media generally and American media especially has been atrocious when reporting on this issue. While Iranian pronouncements are treated sceptically, everything Trump and his courtiers say are treated like the truth, or close enough. Millions of push notifications proclaiming that a deal is imminent and Hormuz will open have hit phones only to turn out to have been based on what Trump said, who has showed a tenuous grasp on the realities of the negotiations and who has shown a relaxed attitude to truthfulness.
For a man so instinctively drawn to bullying, so completely in tune with his 13-year old self as to sniff out any source of potential weakness and always pounce, I find it fascinating that Trump is willing to be so open about his desire for peace. If Mojtaba Khamenei or some other Iranian notable had been equally vocal about a desire for peace Trump would mock them relentlessly. For an ostensible artist of the deal signalling a need for the negotiation to conclude at the current stage is weak; a real deal artist should be like Neil McCauley from Heat: never so attached as to be unwilling to walk away in 30 seconds flat.
This lack of coolness opens Trump up to attacks on two fronts: the homefront and the negotiating front. If you make it clear to your enemy that you want hostilities to end, they are more likely to threaten to continue the conflict and thus squeeze more out of you. Moreover, the willingness to announce this to the enemy will upset cooler heads at home, in the diplomatic corps and the military high command. If the Iranians agree to a deal it is immediately suspect as a better deal could most likely have been reached had the deal artist held his cool.
The takeaway then is to be sceptical of what the financial markets have taken as given: that a deal is imminent and dare I say inevitable. If things end here it would be a powerful blow against America’s standing on the international stage. It did not achieve any of its military objectives, i.e. regime change, destroying the Iranian nuclear programme, or opening the strait of Hormuz. It also made peace on Iran’s terms. That will not fly back in Washington, and sailors, airmen, and soldiers will feel that the political leadership made a deal on bad terms without even letting them show how much better they are than their Iranian counterparts.
A new wave of bombing sorties are coming, and we’ll know exactly when they will be launched when Trump’s courtiers start placing their bets on Polymarket and their trades on stock and commodity exchanges. That is the only way to break the current impasse and make it clear to one of the parties that they will have to compromise. I still think the US will be the ones to give in, but to make it possible to withdraw Trump will need some rubble in Iran to point to, to have something to claim as a win.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about class in the US here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Lara Jameson from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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