The Mystery of Why the Iran War Happened
- Karl Johansson
- för 3 dagar sedan
- 3 min läsning
Why did the US start a war that it cannot win? Stupidity is too simple an explanation, or is it?
Unlike in mystery stories and detective fiction, in reality there are seldom individual architects for tragic events. Still, it is human to want someone to blame, or more constructively an explanation for why things went the way they did. The obvious tragedy for which one could be on the hunt for an explanation is the Iran war. The simplest explanation is of course that we are dealing with simpletons who know little and understand less. Events as consequential as wars tend to have more complex causes than simple stupidity, especially when it involves advanced societies with bureaucracies rather than absolutist monarchies. So what other possible explanations are there?
The first is to take Marco Rubio at his word when he at one point said that Israel was planning to attack, so the US joined them to strike before the inevitable response, which was always going to target US bases. On one hand, this has the effect of blaming the Israelis rather than the Americans for the war, and it does play into antisemitic tropes about world politics being directed from behind the scenes. On the other hand though, it does seem likely to me that Israel really did intend to strike when Iran was in disarray after the massive protests in January.
The second possible explanation is that there are some people in the Trump administration who wanted a war with Iran, and managed to get it. As I’ve written about at length elsewhere, Trump runs more of a court than an administration, and as such it operates on court logic. It find it highly plausible that a courtier could manoeuvre the US into pursuing a pet war even if the big man himself initially wasn’t very keen. And let’s not forget that for all the MAGA folk running around Washington and Mar-a-lago there are still some old school Republicans kicking around too.
Third, and almost certainly a contributing factor, is the myth of American exceptionalism. MAGA is a movement in no small part built on the idea that America is uniquely and singularly good and powerful, and if you do not even question the idea that America is in a league of its own it is easy to make a miscalculation. If you have not been paying attention to the war in Ukraine, and simply buy the financial media refrain of American economic outperformance, you might not see how Iran can have asymmetric advantages which can be leveraged into a win, even against the most powerful military on Earth.
So which explanation is the best one? For my money, it is a combination. I think both Israel and the remaining neo conservatives wanted the war, and I think even those who wanted to stop it were too arrogant to accept the possibility that Iran could put up a real fight. If real life was a movie, there would be a single nefarious individual at whose door all blame could be placed. Real life is more complex, but if I had to nominate who that person would be if life really were like a story, the answer would be Marco Rubio. The last neo con standing pushes arrogantly for war, and when asked why he throws the Israelis under the bus. What a story that would be.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about AI here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Kader D. Kahraman from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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