Ukraine & Iran
- Karl Johansson
- för 1 dag sedan
- 3 min läsning
The war in Iran will make the war in Ukraine more difficult for Kyiv.
While less remarked on than the war in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine rages on. Most stories about the war are simplistic and frame it in terms of oil prices being good for Russia in the short term. There are also counter-narratives explaining that the war is a very temporary reprieve for Russia, and that higher oil export revenues are not a new normal for the Kremlin. Both these perspectives miss what about the third gulf war is relevant for the war in Ukraine. The simple fact is that it is yet another way in which the current war of attrition favours Russia.
It is highly likely that oil prices will indeed not stay this high or higher for the long haul. The strait of Hormuz will eventually open, but the fact that it has been demonstrated that Iran and by implication Saudi Arabia, and other powers in the region can close the strait means that we will have to keep that risk in mind in the future. But Russia does not need oil prices at $100 for ever to keep its war machine running, it budgets for a barrel to cost $59, so anything above that eases fiscal strain. Every week of high prices is one more week when on the economic front at least, Russia is not suffering attrition.
That’s quite a problem for Kyiv given that the war is one of attrition. Zelensky’s strategy is to grind down Russia by making sure every meter gained is expensive in both blood and roubles, and Russia has always had more money and men that Ukraine. The fact that Russia is making some more money temporarily is not a game changer, and will not win or lose either side the war, but it is a factor which favours Russia. And lest we forget, Ukraine is a net energy importer. According to the IEA Ukraine imported 23% of its energy in 2023, before Russia started its air campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Running the domestic economy in Ukraine is difficult as it is when it rains Gerans most nights, and given rolling blackouts. Adding dearer energy into the mix is not good. Ukraine cannot import oil and gas from its mortal enemy, Hormuz is shut, still it needs gas to keep the heating on in winter and petrol to keep APCs and military lorries running. Ukraine will manage, but it will be more expensive at a time when Russia is raking in more cash than before.
The bigger issue is that of the world economy, and the attention economy. If there is a global recession due to the strait being shut for two months then states will have to cut back on nice to haves like military support to Ukraine. You can see the desperation in Zelensky when he tries to get attention and support by claiming that Russia is sending Shahed drones (originally designed and produced in Iran before Russia started producing its own version) to Iran to use against the US, meeting with Reza Pahlavi, and offering to share anti-drone tech with the US. With Iran in the news, the fight against Russian invaders is reframed to fit the headlines, which betrays a lack of confidence in Kyiv. Ukraine cannot win without foreign support, so other conflicts which divide attention and priorities is terrible for Zelensky.
The third gulf war will not be a decisive factor in the war in Ukraine. But it does favour Russia over Ukraine, and while it will probably only be felt on the margins, the point of attrition warfare is precisely to sand down the enemy’s margins.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about Iran here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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