Israel-Iran War

What to make of the Israel-Iran war?

In the night between June 12th and June 13th Israel made its move and started large scale aerial attacks on their arch enemy Iran. The nominal aims are to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons programme and to, if possible, force a regime change in Teheran. Ambitious. Is that possible? And how will the war end? First though, why did Israel attack?

I believe there are two reasons why Israel attacked Iran, one it saw an opportunity, and two prime minister Netanyahu needed it for domestic political reasons. Let’s tackle the opportunity point first.

Israel has since October 7th found that all of its enemies it has attacked , Hamas and Hezbollah, have been far weaker than they thought. Or perhaps they have known for a long time and played up the danger of their foes for political and diplomatic reasons. Either way, what the world thought were dangerous enemies for Israel have turned out to be fairly easily defeated. Why not continue a winning streak? Israel would love to get rid of the revolutionary regime in Teheran trying to develop nuclear weapons. Given how well the strike against Iran in 2024 went, why not take another bite at the apple?

More sinisterly, Israel was sure that the US would have its back no matter what. Israel cowardly tried to bait Iran to strike back in a way which would force the US to go to war with Iran despite the fact that Teheran and Washington did not want to. Indeed they were actively negotiating for a deal when Israel launched their strikes, hardly a coincidence. Trump happily obliged despite the US not being in the loop about Netanyahu's plans before the attacks started. It quickly changed its tune and now it claims to have known all about them, but don’t get it twisted, Netanyahu was in the driver’s seat the whole time. Just like how communist revolutionaries during the Cold War instigated revolutions without asking the USSR for permission because they knew Moscow had to back them, Israel attacked because they knew the US would have to back them.

The US has backed Israel for decades, why do this now? As mentioned, partly to torpedo the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, but also as a distraction. As always, Israel is publicly playing victim in fights it started, and now it can complain to global media about how it is being struck by Iranian missiles to distract from the IDF shooting Gazans at the food stations Israel itself set up to feed Palestinians in Gaza, after Israel shut down outside aid and killed NGO workers who brought food to the strip. Western media reports primarily on how many Israelis killed by Iranian retaliatory strikes after Israel attacked Iran first without a declaration of war or even a casus belli. Israel knows where Western media’s sympathies lie and Netanyahu cynically uses that knowledge to kill for his private interests.

Because that is what all of this is about at its heart. One man’s quest to salvage his reputation, and to hold on to power for as long as necessary. The moment the war ends he will have to face the public about his conduct, about how the intelligence services missed that October 7th was being planned and executed during his watch, about the countless civilians he killed in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and now Iran, about the accusations that he is a war criminal from people from across the world, about his arrest warrant for crimes against humanity from the international criminal court, about his planned judicial reforms critics claim would undermine the rule of law, and about his allegations of corruption. Netanyahu does not care how many dies, nor how many wars he has to start to avoid the publics questions and the law.

Netanyahu wins through the war by clinging like a tick to power in Israel, but in terms of the states involved I don't see anyone winning at all. Sure, there is a victory to be found for Israel and the US in setting Iran's nuclear weapons programme back, missiles and bombs cannot destroy the idea of obtaining nukes, but they can spell out an argument for why nukes are necessary. As no one will invade Iran to finish the job of regime change, and as Iran cannot invade Israel or the US there is a profound pointlessness of the war. Not only in the sense that all war is a senseless waste of human life, but as politics by other means. No political changes will be imposed by either side, only material reality in the form of rubble and spilled blood.

The lack of an endgame lays the scaffolding for the next war, just as it did after the first world war. Neither Iran nor Israel will be able to be defeated in a strictly air war, as such both can walk away with pride in their efforts or dreaming of a more fair second round in the ring. As such both countries' militaries will draw up plans and scenarios for what to do next time around, and politicians will look for an excuse to start the war up again when they feel ready. My guess is that all this war does is to push Iran's nuclear programme back for a time at the cost of making a future war between Iran and Israel inevitable.

If you liked this post you can read a previous post about protest in LA here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my essay on Silicon Valley and AI called 'No Acoustic Guitars in Silicon Valley'. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!

---

I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.

Written by Karl Johansson

---

Sources:

Cover photo by Miguel Cuenca from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson