Polish Proliferation?

In a multipolar world it makes some sense to try to get the bomb, but the ones who need nukes the most have neighbours who will make sure they won't break out.

Polish president Donald Tusk made headlines last week when he mused about Poland getting the bomb. That sentiment has been going around lately, it was not that long ago that now disgraced South Korean prime minister Yoon talked about getting a nuke. And just like with South Korea, Poland is unlikely to get its own nuclear weapon however much their leadership will want one.

As the world gets ever more multi-polar it gets increasingly logical for aspiring Great Powers and aspiring regional powers to aspire towards breaking out. Trump letting Europe down on the subject of defence is an unusually clear sign that states can never truly rely on others for their own security, and humanity has yet to invent a more potent insurance policy against invasion than mutually assured destruction.

That being said, there are strong reasons for nuclear and non-nuclear states alike in opposing minting more weapons of mass destruction. The moral case against nukes is obvious, as is the case that more weapons in more places makes mistakes and theft by nefarious actors more likely. But embittered realists in the vein of Kissinger and Morgenthau have perhaps the most convincing case against letting others get the bomb: that it lessens the power the strong can wield over the weak.

That’s why I don’t see neither Seoul nor Warsaw getting nukes; they have too many powerful neighbours to be allowed to get them. Start with South Korea. Aside from their northern neighbours their region has Japan, China, and Russia, I doubt any one of them would be excited if Seoul were to acquire nuclear weapons. There would certainly be intense diplomatic pressure to stop the programme, and with rouge states like North Korea one could not exclude military force.

On the surface it might seem that Poland is in a much better position to be able to make their nuclear dreams a reality. States like Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, and Lithuania are not likely to intervene militarily in a fellow EU member state’s internal affairs. But being trapped between Germany and Russia has caused endless trouble and heartache for the Poles in the past. The fact that Germany is a thoroughly democratic country does not change its basic security imperatives, and having one nuclear armed neighbour is more than enough for Berlin. If there is one policy which could open a window for détente between Russia and Germany it would probably be Polish nuclear weapons.

As much as the war in Ukraine proves that major state war is back in a big way, and as much as the counterfactual of Ukraine keeping its Soviet nukes is fascinating, nuclear proliferation will not just be bad in the indeterminate future when they are used in anger. Nuclear proliferation will also drive conflict during the process itself. Consider Iran which has been on the receiving end of plenty of harassment over its nuclear weapons programme. I don’t think Germany, Russia, or Japan will prove too nice to do something similar if Seoul and Warsaw put their plans into action.

Pursuing nuclear weapons is dangerous to the country wishing to do so and all its neighbours, and while a nuclear deterrent brings enhanced security for the country breaking out in the future it also brings danger here and now. And unfortunately, the countries with the strongest need for a deterrent will almost always face the most risk of military intervention if they purse it.

If you liked this post you can read a previous post about who's next on Russia's list of countries to be invaded here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!

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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.

Written by Karl Johansson

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Cover photo by Pixabay from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson