Standoff in LA
- Karl Johansson
- 16 juni
- 6 min läsning
Trump is forcing a confrontation by sending the national guard to LA. It remains to be seen whether the protestors take the bait.
Los Angeles is becoming famous for its protests, in the last thirty-five years the city has had three protests big and intense enough for someone in the state or federal government to call in the national guard. This latest time is not the worst in terms of damage done to protesters, riot controllers, or bystanders. Nor is it the worst in terms of looting and destruction of homes, businesses, and public spaces. Still, it has the potential to be bigger than both the Rodney King and the George Floyd protests in terms of impact.
Before we get to potential impacts and speculation about what the current protests might mean and how LA and California might change let’s start by quickly summarising the previous protests I’ve mentioned. In 1991, at the tail end of the early 90’s recession, Rodney King was badly beaten by a group of LA police officers while being recorded by a bystander. Still, the officers were acquitted and riots broke out over the unfair treatment of the white officers and the black victim. Later during the recession triggered by the pandemic, George Floyd was murdered by a white police officer in Minnesota, protests and riots ensued quickly spreading to LA. And again – with the economic uncertainty brough on by Trump’s erratic tariff policy and dismantling of the administrative state – protests have broken out to oppose the currents administration’s push to deport people living in America illegally, many if not most of them people of colour.
I think it is important to recognise the importance of economic factors when discussing protests and riots. As I see it, both the intensity of feeling about the triggering event and the economic hardship at the time of the trigger determines the intensity of a protest. Or in other words: the more outrageous the triggering event is and the worse the economy is doing the bigger the protests are, and the more likely they are to become violent. In the light of this, one might expect the LA protests not to be all that bad. Maybe it wouldn’t have been, the early news coverage seems to suggest that rather few people were out protesting, especially in comparison to previous major protests which went out hand into rioting requiring the national guard.
Which is where we get to the real story here, the national politics. As you are no doubt aware, the previous paragraph is slightly facetious, president Trump called in the National Guard against California’s governor, Gavin Newsom’s will, which escalated the conflict between protestors and the federal government they are protesting against. On the one hand, it is a clever play from Trump’s side in that he is trying to reframe the issue from being about protesting against his aggressive anti-immigration agenda to a personal attack on Trump and his base. On the other hand, it is clearly a bad faith act dripping with contempt for his political rivals. What escalates the conflict further and creates a real powder keg is that Newsom has officially and stridently taken the other side.
If you are protesting against the government, most times chances are you will not get your agenda through. It requires a big protest to get the visibility you need to properly get the relevant people in power to see that there is an issue. If you manage that you will probably need an organisation to make sure everyone shows up at the right place and time for your protests, and crucially to make sure it is no hijacked by more radical people or factions inclined to use violence. Even if you manage all this you will have to engage in a political process with established political organisations to realise your agenda. This process usually takes a long time, so protests movements easily fall apart before they see their desired changes, often content with symbolic victories. The exception is when there is a well established political organisation which takes up their cause, which is where Newsom comes in. As the protestors’ sponsor he has made the demands of the protestors much more achievable and given institutional credibility to their cause, making it more attractive to join.
Newsom’s entry then formalises the two distinct camps of protestors and anti-protestors into explicitly being Democratic and Republican affiliated respectively. They were implicitly before too and in a political environment as polarised as the US, naturally the two sides would become absorbed by the two main parties eventually, even if it was not originally a left-right issue with clear homes for the two sides. The fact that almost all political issues sort themselves along partisan lines in America is in a way a feature of their system, and there is an argument to say that makes the system practical for American voters; of course long time readers of the blog know I disagree. The issue here is how Democratic and Republican institutions like the parties themselves and their media ecosystems now have an official green light to frame the protest in such a way as to benefit their side.
What’s especially frustrating is that this blows up the issue massively abroad. Swedish centre right podcast Wallnor & PM released an episode titled ‘Ett tillstånd som nästan liknar ett inbördeskrig’, or in English: A Situation Which Almost Resembles a Civil War. In spite of the fact that, at least according to the reporting from the ground I’ve seen, the protests are small and contained. Not violent, not organised, without the presence of revolutionary groups or militias. The protest at the time of writing seem to hold no chance of triggering or resembling a civil war. The warped mirrors of partisan media echo chambers make a modest stand-off a huge deal.
Still, the point here is not to completely throw cold water on this thing. As mentioned in the introduction it could have a great impact if the protest escalate. Trump sent ethanol to contain timber, and the fact that there has not yet been a spark is no guarantee that nothing will happen – especially during a weekend when more people can join the protestors. All that’s needed to light the town up is a protestor getting badly beaten by an anti-riot officer or a national guard getting hit with a thrown brick and taking a serious injury.
If things do kick off then we have a more or less official pitched battle between Democrats and Republicans in the middle of the US’ second city. No matter who wins and who loses, that is a major escalation in the enmity between the two sides. There have been major protests and uses of political violence between the two sides before, but most were a sucker punch. No one expected the George Floyd protests or the January 6th riots, but in LA both sides are currently prepared for a fight in LA. The main issue then is how the protests could be another blow against American unity.
All throughout the last two presidential elections I’ve seen and heard the phrase “these people” referring to the other party’s supporters, and variations of it which to me indicates a degradation of the American nation in favour of more partisan tribal identity. A hypothetical “Battle of LA” would certainly further that trend. Americans are moving towards a society where people never assume that the opposite political faction is ever acting in good faith in a self-reinforcing spiral where the federal state becomes less and less effective as compromise between Reds and Blues is impossible. How can you possibly compromise with the party who deployed the national guard to beat up peaceful protestors? How can you possibly compromise with the party who launched violent protests against a policy frequently and prominently promised in the lead up to the election your party won fair and square, including the popular vote?
These protests might well blow over, and all the dark predictions I’ve lain out here may turn out to be overblown. But I’m convinced this kind of standoff between the national guard and protestors will return. As mentioned, the size and intensity of these protests has, as of yet at the time of writing, not warranted a response from the national guard. Trump sent them in to force this confrontation, and if nothing happens in LA he will find another time and place to trigger the conflict. Newsom’s support for the protestors indicate that there is appetite for a conflict from the Democrats too. It can be postponed, but as long as Trump is in office it cannot be resolved.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about the bromance breakup between Trump and Musk here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my essay on Silicon Valley and AI called 'No Acoustic Guitars in Silicon Valley'. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Germar Derron from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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