Twilight of the Drones
The beginning of the end for drone warfare is close.
Since August 2023 I’ve argued that the defining feature of the war in Ukraine is the ‘Defender’s Advantage’. Cheap and accurate surveillance drones coupled with accurate indirect fire have made it difficult for infantry and armour to move over the front lines. Territorial gains have been slow for both attackers and counter-attackers, and since this dynamic has held for several years it is tempting to think it is an era-defining feature of modern warfare akin to the plate armour and castles of the late medieval period. However, I think that is set to change in the coming year.
Previous military eras managed to stabilise in no small part due to the relatively weak industrial and scientific prowess of states of their times. No one had a state funded institutions to prototype a tank during the middle ages, nor during the Napoleonic wars. Modern states however, do have the resources and knowledge needed to develop new military technologies and doctrines while at war, as has been evident in most conflicts involving one or more Great Powers since the first world war. If the first world war had gone on for another two or three years the breakthroughs which were made at the end of the conflict like the introduction of the first tanks could have drastically changed the way the war was fought, if not the outcome.
The Russo-Ukrainian war has now gone on for longer than the first world war, and both sides have continued to refine and advance their military technologies and capabilities. Even if there is not yet an anti-drone weapon which will change the course of the war, we should expect it to be developed soon; assuming that there is some way to defeat drones. Simplicius wrote a Substack post recently highlighting the advances Russia has made in counter-drone systems for tanks showcased in an exercise. It remains to be seen whether it works in the field, but it is at the very least proof that the Russians are working on anti-drone tech.
It is often said that generals tend to fight the last war, but I would venture that the only high commands who are sure to avoid that trap are those currently fighting a long war, one in which they have already had to discard the ideas from the previous war. With most militaries currently working on producing drones and learning drone warfare, anti-drone warfare strategies are most likely to come from the belligerents in eastern Ukraine.
It remains to be seen whether these advances will work in the field, but even if they don’t we should expect the Russians to keep trying to develop drone-resistant armour. The longer the war drags on, the more likely the discovery of a truly effective anti-drone system becomes, as the gains increase. In addition, with both sides hitting the other’s industrial base with drones, there are also huge incentives to develop anti-drone shields. In short, the defender’s advantage could be on the way out.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about AI here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Titian Noverian Putra from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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