Multipolarity & the Need for Prestige

The move from a bipolar to a multipolar world has made international prestige one of the most important drivers for states to act.

In a bipolar world, where there are two superpowers and their respective power blocs, ideology is the most important thing. You need to legitimise and explain the struggle against the civilizational rival, and ideology is a great tool for doing so. But we have not been in a bipolar age since 2008, the world is multipolar with three Great Powers in the form of the USA, China, and Russia. In a multipolar world, ideology becomes less important because today’s ally could be tomorrow’s enemy; like how Stalin was uncle Joe during the second world war, and the devil after the peace. It does not make sense to go all in in ideology in the fluid, dynamic world of multipolarity, instead there are other motivations which gain increased relevance. Specifically prestige, which I propose to be a useful lens to understand both the new multipolar world generally, and the Ukraine war and the war in Iran specifically.

Competition over prestige is not unique to a multipolar world, the space race is a good example of how international prestige can drive states to compete in a scientific domain even as both sides had mastered rocketry enough to produce ballistic missiles capable of striking the other. But in a multipolar world prestige becomes central as who does and does not count as a Great Power is less clear than in a world where one or two states completely dominate to the point of being in league of their own. Much like becoming a state, becoming a Great Power is contingent on recognition, otherwise known as prestige.

The war in Ukraine makes more sense in light of Russia’s thirst for prestige and recognition as a Great Power. It could stop at any time and more than reasonably claim to have won the war. But Russia needs a decisive victory which will prove it to be one of the main players in international politics, and the current battlefield gains are not enough to convince the US and China, or the rest of the world of Russia’s claim to Great Powerdom. When analysts and journalists say that the war doesn’t make sense, or that Russia has nothing to gain from continuing their meat grinder assault they are right from a strict policy perspective. But Russia continues nonetheless, because it is not about which hamlets and hills it occupies but being able to have a victory worthy of a triumphal arc or a national ballad.

The opposite dynamic is at play in Iran. No humiliation would be deeper, no embarrassment would be worse for the preeminent Great Power than to have to admit to a genuine inability to defeat Iran militarily. That is why the US will continue to escalate no matter what the Wall Street Journal’s sources and Trump’s truth social posts say, because ending the war here would be proof that the American military is not as mighty as we had all believed. Preserving the status as top dog is possible even though China has more warships and a larger standing army as long as the mythology of the American navy and the marines is sustained. No president could let the image of American hard power be sullied, and the military will use all the tricks it can to continue the fight long enough for it to prove itself.

Admittedly, this is not a very scientific thesis, indeed prestige is not in any way quantifiable or objectively measurable. Still, I think it is a useful lens for understanding the world, and I do think it goes a long way to explaining why the Great Powers of the long 19^th century acted the way they did. If the prestige thesis holds, expect the US to escalate further until it can credibly claim a military victory in Iran or until it suffers a real setback at which point the narrative of American decline will become omnipresent, potentially creating a latent revanchism in Washington. We should also expect Putin to continue his war in Ukraine for as long as it takes to thoroughly prove himself, and to never ever suffer the humiliation of negotiating with Ukraine as an equal.

If you liked this post you can read a previous post about the mystery of why the Iran war happened here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!

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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.

Written by Karl Johansson

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Cover photo by Tahir Xəlfə from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson