Fool Trump Once...
- Karl Johansson
- 11 aug.
- 3 min läsning
Trump and Putin are going to meet in Alaska to try to negotiate a peace in Ukraine. Their relationship is far more interesting than whatever they will be discussing.
Trump and Putin are going to meet in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine. I doubt these negotiations will actually conclude the war, after all Ukraine can still fight even if the US does not back it. The most interesting part of the peace talks then, is the relationship between Trump and Putin rather than what they discuss.
Trump often tacitly takes Russia’s side, famously so, but I think it is important to disentangle the reasons why Trump’s administration is pro-Russia. Partly it is because Trump himself seems to admire Vladimir Putin personally, and that makes a lot of sense. Trump wants to be a monarchical figure who seems to view ruling as a right rather than a duty. Putin’s Russia does have some ideological underpinnings but they are rather weak, and much of the state’s power is centralised in Putin personally. The American left often seem to stop their analysis of why Trump is generally pro-Russian there, usually assuming that the Russians have some sort of compromat on Trump or that he wants to be a dictator but there is more to it than that. As much as MAGA is an ideologically loose party mostly tied together through Trump’s charisma there are some deeply held anti-interventionist views in corners of the movement. As such the moral and geostrategic reasons for supporting Ukraine does not interest them meaning that giving Putin what he wants is the quickest path to getting out of the conflict. Then there is a third element in the administration which is comprised of China hawks who really believe that a grand confrontation with Beijing is inevitable which means that each artillery shell and dollar going to Ukraine would be better spent on countering China.
To be clear, I think there are strong moral reasons to support Ukraine, and while I don’t think there are any strategic reasons for the US to support Kyiv there are good reasons for some European states to do so. Still, the fact is that Trump’s incoherent coalition does agree on the point that helping Ukraine is a waste. And the proposed peace summit in Alaska is a great example of both how the US is disinterested in the war, and of how Putin continually outmanoeuvres Trump.
Just getting a peace summit without Ukraine validates Moscow’s stance that Ukraine is not an equal. In addition however, it is clear that Putin will present a reasonable sounding deal to Trump which has one or a couple of provisions designed to enrage Zelensky and the Ukrainian electorate. Trump talks a big game of how he is an unrivalled negotiator who knows the art of the deal. But the fact is that he lacks the detail orientation needed to be a good deal maker in international politics. The fact that Trump gets caught in Putin’s traps like this is fascinating, and I have to begrudgingly give credit to Putin for managing to string Trump along like this. Trump keeps giving Putin more chances which Putin keep using to tricking Trump. My guess is that the pattern will continue to hold in Alaska. The fact that they continue to be on relatively good terms is impressive, and seeing Putin pull that trick one more time is much more interesting than the proposals or joint communiqués which may result from the meeting.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about Ukraine here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my essay on Silicon Valley and AI called 'No Acoustic Guitars in Silicon Valley'. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson