Putin's Pal
- Karl Johansson
- 21 juli
- 3 min läsning
Trump reversed the decision not to sell Ukraine weapons, but he is still helping his pal Putin.
Trump is often accused of being pro-Putin, a reputation well-earned. Yet lately the press has been kind to Trump over his decision not to completely cut off aid to Ukraine. That is misreading the situation, and a classic error of thinking relatively instead of objectively. Letting Ukraine buy weapons instead of completely cutting off military supplies is relatively better sure, but it is objectively worse than getting weapons for free. Besides, the fact that Ukraine and its foreign supporters are allowed to buy American weapons for use in the war is hardly a great concession, that puts the US in line with most countries on Earth. Don’t let Trump’s flip-flopping distract you, this latest decision is a big deal.
The fact that Ukraine has to pick up the tab for the war with Russia is a clear, if perhaps implicit, signal that Ukraine sits outside the US’ sphere of influence. Halting direct support for the Zelensky regime means that the US has finally realised the obvious: it has nothing to lose from the Donbass falling to Russia. Obviously, wars of conquest are morally objectionable and Kyiv maintains the moral high ground in the conflict, but speaking strictly strategically what happens in Ukraine does not matter either way for the US. Now that is official policy, at least until Trump makes another about face.
What cements my view is the fact that Putin has agreed to hold negotiations regarding a ceasefire in the aftermath of Trump’s decision. As per usual, Putin sees Russia as currently winning – fairly so in my view – and as such has clear and firm asks. Still, the fact that the US seems to have accepted the fact that Russia will have a say in the future of Ukraine bodes well for diplomacy. If I am right then it will take some time for Zelensky and the Ukrainians to realise that the US has given up. The EU and European leaders like Macron will no doubt try to convince Kyiv that they’ll continue to have a chance at winning even with the US out of the picture. But slowly it will become clear that negotiations are in order.
As sad as it is to see might making right again in international politics, there is some solace to be found in a reality of spheres of influence. I don’t blame Ukraine for not wanting to be under Putin’s and Russia’s thumb, but if spheres of influence are properly respected then there is less risk of conflict and war. Trump’s decision then directly favours peace, if still an unjust peace.
Trump considers himself a great peacemaker, and in a way he is helping to bring about peace by officially excluding Ukraine from a US sphere of influence. In doing so he creates the conditions for a peace on Russian terms. A victory for Russia. Indeed, the very conditions necessary for a victory for Russia. Even when pleasing the Western press Trump is doing Putin’s bidding.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about Twitter here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my essay on Silicon Valley and AI called 'No Acoustic Guitars in Silicon Valley'. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Lisá Yakurím from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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