Winter is Coming
- Karl Johansson
- för 13 minuter sedan
- 3 min läsning
Ukraine has handled past war winters well. Will it be able to continue doing so?
Winter is coming, and with it the annual reports about how prepared Ukraine is for the coming months. Most of these stories make the case that things are difficult, but make it an inspirational story about Ukrainian resistance and persistence in the face of Russian hostility. That aspect is important to emphasise, but it is not the whole story. The truth is that Ukraine is in a war of attrition due to the defender’s advantage, and much like going bankrupt losing a war of attrition happens slowly and then all at once. I don’t often say this, but Trump is right. Ukraine should give up on the Donbass and sue for peace.
A month ago, the big story about the war was that Ukraine had started to destroy Russian oil refineries and other hydrocarbon infrastructure and how that really weakens Russian and threatens its economy. Today, the narrative is somewhat flipped, the Russian’s have started to target Ukrainian gas infrastructure which has “unexpectedly forced Ukraine to spend an astonishing $1.9bn on imported gas” according to The Economist. Needless to say, Ukraine is hardly rolling in cash, and while I’m not an expert, the missile exchanges targeting energy infrastructure has probably done more harm to Ukraine than to Russia.
There has been much written about the state of the Russian economy with its stubborn inflation and growing budget deficits. But the same is true of Ukraine. It is impossible to know which side is worse off, and which side can hold out longer, but it is necessarily true that neither side can keep this up forever. Targeting industry and infrastructure exacerbates these economic issues, but it also normalises such strikes which is not necessarily in Ukraine’s interest.
I keep harping on about the simple fact that Russia is a larger, richer, and more industrially sophisticated country which means that it is naturally favoured in a war of attrition. True, Ukraine is more innovative and has developed both new hardware and new tactics which have proven effective since the war began. But the issue is that you cannot patent military tactics or through other means stop your enemies from copying you. As these strikes on hydrocarbon infrastructure shows, Russia can use the same ideas against Ukraine, and often at a higher intensity or larger scale.
At the same time, there are also things Ukraine has learned from Russia during the war. Decision making is increasingly centralised around Zelensky and Yermak like it is around Putin, and political opponents have been arrested in both Moscow and Kyiv. Both sides have committed to disastrous offensives which resulted in nothing but funerals.
Stubbornness can be a virtue. But when other people’s money and other’s people’s lives are at stake it is not. This winter may be fine, with Ukraine’s energy system and drone defences able to keep civilians and warfighters safe and warm. The last three winters have all been more or less fine given the circumstances, despite dire warnings. But it also might not. How many more times can Kyiv make this gamble?
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about American politics here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my essay on Silicon Valley and AI called 'No Acoustic Guitars in Silicon Valley'. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by eberhard grossgasteiger from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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