Slowly, Then All at Once
- Karl Johansson
- för 10 timmar sedan
- 5 min läsning
The fact that the front line is barely moving does not mean that nothing is happening in the war.
This winter has been unusually cold in Europe, and nowhere is that felt more than in Ukraine. Russian attacks on Ukrainian power and heating systems are starting to pay off for Putin’s armies, and the result is that Kyiv is becoming harder and harder to live in. I made the point in November that losing a war of attrition is like going bankrupt, you do it slowly at first and then all at once. The recent strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure may seem like more of the same, brutal attacks against a foe which did nothing to deserve it, but it could also be the beginning of a cascade of negative outcomes should Russia be able to stop Ukraine from repairing its damaged sites.
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On the latest episode of Rational Security the hosts discuss a recent reporting trip to Ukraine, and how one of the three central heating and power plants in Kyiv has been taken offline by Russian attacks. This results in thousands of apartments being without heating and electricity during a cold snap, which in turn results in water pipes freezing. The fact that thousands of Kyivans are without heat, electricity, and water is bad enough, but that also creates a repair debt for the Ukrainian society. All the energy should go towards building resiliency in and repairing the systems and facilities which make Kyiv liveable in winter of course. But there will also be lots of buildings with damaged pipes, appliances, and other issues caused by a prolonged lack of heat and power.
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We can all survive a power outage, a heating outage, lacking water, or a broken appliance, but these issues compound and accumulate. Dealing with all of them at once with an uncertain timeline for repairs and fixes is not just difficult but mentally draining. Life can go on, even in such circumstances but you rather not, especially when heat, water, and power is available in other parts of Ukraine, and of course across the border.
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Since these smaller repairs are downstream from the centralised power system, in the sense that it does not make sense to repair broken pipes if the heating is not back meaning that the pipes can just freeze again, those repairs will likely be contingent on getting power back. In that way hundreds of homes in Kyiv are at the mercy of Russian missile strikes. An already damaged facility perversely becomes an even juicier target. If Russia keeps bombing repair crews and the facility is not repaired the people living and working in some parts of Kyiv will have to move. Less people in a city means less tax revenue and problems for local restaurants and shops which receive less business.
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Ukrainians are still up for a fight and support their leadership in continuing to oppose the invaders. But political opinion matters, and political attitudes can shift quickly when you have no running water and it is -2 in your apartment; especially if the presidential residence has all of its amenities and if the posh addresses go without frozen pipes.
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Of course, for maximum effect the Kremlin will have to keep Kyiv shut down for weeks; indeed until next winter. It remains a question whether it is possible to do so, and if the Ukrainians are able to figure out new ways to keep Kyiv running. Having freezing citizens and rolling blackouts makes for a weak negotiating position. Does Zelensky want to gamble on keeping the war machine running for another year? My guess is yes – that man seems determined in a way only politicians who feel their legacy is a stake can be – but continuing the bankruptcy metaphor, there will come a day when it is the bank’s decision, not his. I don’t think a negotiation breakthrough is likely anytime soon, but the iron clad certainty with which Kyiv negotiates with could also be slipping‚ slowly, for now.
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Finally, there is the military aspect of it all. Returning readers will know that my framework for understanding the war is what I call the ‘defender’s advantage’. The idea that current military technology with precise indirect fire and ubiquitous drone surveillance heavily favours the defender as it is easy to spot approaching enemy units and to attack without opening yourself up to return fire. But war is politics by other means, not just violence. Motivating your soldiers to fight in the trenches and in the bombed out townships is easy when there is a home to come back to. Not when your town is cold, without electricity, and even those manning the home front are considering deserting. Morale can also erode slowly, then all at once.
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I don’t mean to imply that a death spiral is inevitable for Ukraine, rather I’m trying to illustrate the ways in which the Russian air campaign is supposed to work from the Kremlin’s perspective. I also want to make the point that wars of attrition are not just a staring contest where one side decides that they will no longer take it, but can be actively lost if the opponent is able to create a cascade of adversity. The fact that the front line is not a dynamic minute by minute affaire complete with daring deeds by heroes and dastardly plots by villains, with tanks thundering across the trenches and ace pilots dogfighting dramatically in the sky does not mean that nothing is happening in the war. The risk for Ukraine is that it is losing slowly, day by day and centimetre by centimetre until it all goes downhill at once.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about freedom of speech and X/twitter here or the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Annushka Ahuja from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson