2025 Predictions Revisited

Did the Definitive Guide to 2025* live up to its name?

With 2025 having come to a close it is time to once again engage in the tradition of predictions and evaluations. On the blog that means evaluating all the predictions made in the Ipoleco definitive guide to 2025*. I think I did a fairly good job of it this year, but I may have worded my predictions too broadly, which makes it easier to argue the case that I was right. The topics I write about on the blog are naturally unsuited to specific and measurable predictions like ‘West Ham will win the premier league’, so I encourage you to write in the comments whether or not my predictions deserve any credit. As I always say, the point is to have fun and possibly get better, so without further ado below are my predictions for 2025 with an accompanying evaluation:

Prediction 1: Split in the EU

With Kyiv having stopped gas from Russia from transiting through Ukraine and Germany heading for a snap election where Ukraine-sceptic parties are predicted to do well, the stage is set for another EU clash over the war. It is increasingly clear that Ukraine will not win the war, it will not retake the Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, let alone Crimea. At the same time, Russia is conducting sabotage across Europe, targeting undersea cables. So far pro-Ukraine forces have won the argument with the backing of the US, but things have changed a lot the last two years. Meanwhile, with things being what they are in Syria while Israel continues its military action there is the risk of increased Middle Eastern refugees sparking another bitter argument about migration. Furthermore, Bulgaria and Romania, two of the poorest countries in the EU, will finally become full Schengen area members in 2025 which will pour further fuel on the migration fire. Not to mention the fact that both France and Germany will hold elections next year and there is practically no hope of the EU getting anything done next year.

Evaluation:

I think there is some solid analysis here, and I find it to have been spot on – if I do say so myself. The EU is split on the war in Ukraine, and countries like Slovakia, Czechia, and Belgium are finding themselves aligned with Hungary on some issues in a way which we would not have seen in 2022 or 2023. The best example of an EU split is the fact that the union was unable to agree on using frozen Russian assets in some way to support Ukraine.  The EU has also not been able to push back on the second Trump administration’s hostility to the union and the continent. All in all, a correct prediction – though not a very ambitious one.

Prediction 2: Texas California Split

With Donald Trump back in the White House the partisan splits which has defined American politics for the last decade will shift as Republicans go from the disloyal opposition to the pinnacle of power. Just like how Democrats and the institutions their voters cherished entered resistance mode when Trump became president last time, I fully expect them to do so again this time. The difference is that Trump has now proven to be able to realise conservative fantasies like reversing Roe v Wade so progressives will be even more on edge. My prediction is that this fear will manifest in state houses in Democratic states which will mean that the regulatory drift between states like New York and California on one side and Texas and Florida on the other will grow further. It is difficult to know what will be the specific issue next year, but I think another policy split on the same magnitude as abortion access will emerge in the coming year.

Evaluation:

Again, this prediction was not an especially ambitious one, as the US is so clearly split along partisan lines. Still, I think the fight over mid-decade electoral redistricting is a good fit for what I was predicting. The quibble you may have is that it does not actually impact the lives of people directly, but I still think it is fair to say this was spot on.

Prediction 3: Settlements in Gaza

I wrote in 2023 that I think the October 10th attacks were a case of catastrophic success; Hamas could never have dreamed of being as successful as they were and thus could not possibly prepare for the overwhelming response from Israel. Similarly, I think Israel’s wars on Gaza and Hezbollah, its escalation of settler violence on the West Bank, and its occupation of more Syrian territory has been far more successful and has met far less resistance than it would have thought. Netanyahu and his far-right allies feel vindicated in their support for widening the scope of the war, while the incoming Trump administration is signalling that it will be even more pro-Israel than Biden’s government was. As much as Netanyahu seems to be running out of road on his time in power with corruption trials and low approval ratings, I think he will try to leave a fait accompli for his successor in Gaza. It was no small feat for Ariel Sharon to demolish settlements in Gaza in 2005, and given West Bank settlers’ influence in the Knesset it might prove a political nightmare to try that trick again. There is a perverse incentive for Netanyahu to take radical action while he still can, and if he is going to lose power (and possibly go to prison) anyway then the political consequences of reestablishing settlements are impotent to stop him.

Evaluation:

Here we have a classic prediction mistake of mistiming. From the reporting I’ve read, it does not strikes me as unreasonable that Israel is on the path towards settlements in Gaza again, especially in light of the settler activity on the West Bank. Still, the prediction was for 2025 and there are no settlements in Gaza. I was just wrong.

Two out of three is a respectable result, and the fact that I had not seen anyone else make these predictions at the time I’m satisfied with the definitive guide to 2025*. Not my best result, but not my worst either. On Monday I’ll release the Ipoleco Definitive Guide to 2026* so stay tuned, and I wish you a happy and peaceful year to come!

If you liked this post you can read the rest of my writings here. I also have a section for longer reads I call essays here, I particularly recommend my series called The Bird & The Technoking exploring Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, and its political and cultural implications. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!

I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.

Written by Karl Johansson

Cover photo by Leeloo The First from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson